Sovereign Debt Risk Rankings
The Bankrupt Baby Risk Score rates each government from 0 (low risk) to 100 (severe risk), combining how much it owes, what that debt costs to service, its credit rating, inflation, and the strength of its currency. Click any country for its full credit report.
| # | Country | Risk Score | Debt / GDP | Interest / Revenue | Rating | CPI YoY | Currency 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan | 49 Elevated risk | 218.5% | — | -0.4% | -6.9% | |
| 2 | Mexico | 46 Elevated risk | 62.3% | 20.0% | +5.6% | +1.4% | |
| 3 | United States | 46 Elevated risk | 136.8% | 20.3% | +4.5% | base | |
| 4 | Italy | 41 Elevated risk | 148.7% | 9.4% | +1.2% | -4.5% | |
| 5 | Spain | 30 Moderate risk | 106.6% | 6.5% | +2.9% | -4.5% | |
| 6 | France | 29 Moderate risk | 116.2% | 4.2% | +0.8% | -4.5% | |
| 7 | Poland | 28 Moderate risk | 72.9% | 5.2% | +2.4% | -7.2% | |
| 8 | Belgium | 27 Moderate risk | 108.6% | 4.5% | +2.1% | -4.5% | |
| 9 | United Kingdom | 26 Moderate risk | 94.6% | 8.3% | +3.0% | -1.7% | |
| 10 | Canada | 26 Moderate risk | 118.8% | 8.4% | +1.7% | -2.0% | |
| 11 | South Korea | 17 Low risk | 58.0% | 5.3% | +3.1% | +4.6% | |
| 12 | Germany | 17 Low risk | 62.8% | 2.5% | +2.9% | -4.5% | |
| 13 | Australia | 16 Low risk | 73.6% | 3.1% | +4.2% | +5.4% | |
| 14 | Sweden | 15 Low risk | 59.2% | 1.1% | +0.3% | -6.6% | |
| 15 | Netherlands | 14 Low risk | 47.8% | 1.7% | +2.8% | -4.5% | |
| 16 | Switzerland | 12 Low risk | 41.4% | 0.9% | +0.1% | -4.2% |
Currency 1y: + means the currency gained against the US dollar. Data refreshed Oct 5, 2026.
How the score works
Each component is converted to 0–100 risk points on a fixed scale: at or better than the left-hand value it scores 0, at or worse than the right-hand value it scores 100, and in between it scales in a straight line. The scales are fixed rather than ranked against other countries, so a country's score only changes when its own numbers change.
| Component | Weight | 0 points at | 100 points at |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-GDP | 25% | 30% | 250% |
| Interest-to-revenue | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| Credit rating (S&P) | 15% | AAA | B or below |
| Inflation (CPI YoY, gap from 2%) | 15% | 2% | 10 pts from 2% (≥ 12% or ≤ −8%) |
| Currency, 1-year vs USD | 10% | +10% stronger | −25% weaker |
| Debt trend (1-year change) | 5% | −5 pts of GDP | +10 pts of GDP |
| Foreign-held share of debt | 5% | 0% | 70% |
Missing data: not every source covers every country (foreign-held debt, for example, is only available for the US and eight EU members). When a component is missing, it's left out and the remaining weights are scaled up to fill its share, so a country isn't penalized for a gap in the data. A score is only published when debt-to-GDP is available and at least 50% of the total weight could be calculated. Each country's report lists exactly which components were used.
Bands: 0–19 Low · 20–39 Moderate · 40–59 Elevated · 60–79 High · 80–100 Severe.
What it isn't: the score is our own transparent composite indicator for comparing countries at a glance. It is not a credit rating and doesn't capture everything that matters — reserve-currency status, central-bank backing, maturity profile and political risk all affect how much debt a country can carry. Japan, for instance, scores high on debt load but borrows almost entirely in its own currency from domestic savers.
Sources: OECD, World Bank, Eurostat, US Treasury, IMF, ECB via Frankfurter, BIS and national central banks; credit ratings are S&P long-term foreign-currency ratings entered manually, current as of 2026-08-10. Educational content only — not financial advice.