Risk Rankings › Canada
Canada — Sovereign Credit Report
Canada's government debt is 118.8% of GDP, interest payments take 8.4% of government revenue, and consumer prices are up 1.7% year over year.
Higher = riskier. Based on 6 of 7 components (95% of the full weight); missing components are left out and the rest re-weighted. How the score works.
What drives the score
| Component | Reading | Risk points (0–100) | Weight | Adds to score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-GDP | 118.8% of GDP (2025) | 40 | 26% | 10.6 |
| Interest-to-revenue | 8.4% of revenue (2024) | 33 | 26% | 8.8 |
| Credit rating (S&P) | AAA | 0 | 16% | 0.0 |
| Inflation (CPI YoY, gap from 2%) | +1.73% YoY | 3 | 16% | 0.4 |
| Currency, 1-year vs USD | -2.0% vs USD | 34 | 11% | 3.6 |
| Debt trend (1-year change) | +2.2 pts of GDP | 48 | 5% | 2.5 |
| Foreign-held share of debt | Not available for Canada — excluded | |||
The details
Debt
| Gross government debt | 118.8% of GDP |
| Data year | 2025 |
| Change vs. prior year | +2.2 pts |
| Interest / revenue | 8.4% (2024) |
| Foreign-held share | — |
Credit rating
| S&P long-term foreign-currency | AAA |
| Notches below AAA | 0 |
| Investment grade? | Yes |
Ratings current as of 2026-08-10.
Inflation & money
| CPI, year over year | +1.73% |
| CPI, month over month | +0.55% |
| Broad money growth (YoY) | — |
| QTM implied inflation | N/A |
QTM = money growth minus real GDP growth, the Hanke-Greenwood method, with a 12–24 month lag. Full table →
Currency
| CAD per US dollar | 1.4253 |
| Latest day vs USD | -0.09% |
| 1 year vs USD | -2.0% |
+ means the CAD gained against the dollar. Rates as of 2026-10-05. All currencies →
Monetary policy
| Policy rate | 2.25% |
| Last move | ▼ 0.25 pts |
| Changed on | 2025-10-30 |
| Real policy rate (rate − CPI) | +0.52% |
Source: Bank of Canada. Central banking →
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Sources: OECD (gross general government debt, CPI); World Bank (interest payments % of revenue, broad money); Eurostat and US Treasury TIC (foreign-held debt); IMF (real GDP growth); ECB via Frankfurter (exchange rates); BIS, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of England (policy rates); S&P (credit ratings, entered manually). Data refreshed Oct 5, 2026. The Bankrupt Baby Risk Score is our own composite indicator, not a credit rating. Educational content only — not financial advice.