Risk Rankings › United States
United States — Sovereign Credit Report
United States's government debt is 136.8% of GDP, interest payments take 20.3% of government revenue, and consumer prices are up 4.5% year over year.
Higher = riskier. Based on 5 of 7 components (85% of the full weight); missing components are left out and the rest re-weighted. How the score works.
What drives the score
| Component | Reading | Risk points (0–100) | Weight | Adds to score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-GDP | 136.8% of GDP (2025) | 49 | 29% | 14.3 |
| Interest-to-revenue | 20.3% of revenue (2024) | 81 | 29% | 23.9 |
| Credit rating (S&P) | AA+ | 7 | 18% | 1.3 |
| Inflation (CPI YoY, gap from 2%) | +4.47% YoY | 25 | 18% | 4.4 |
| Currency, 1-year vs USD | Not available for United States — excluded (USD is the base currency for this site's FX data) | |||
| Debt trend (1-year change) | -0.5 pts of GDP | 30 | 6% | 1.8 |
| Foreign-held share of debt | Not available for United States — excluded | |||
The details
Debt
| Gross government debt | 136.8% of GDP |
| Data year | 2025 |
| Change vs. prior year | -0.5 pts |
| Interest / revenue | 20.3% (2024) |
| Foreign-held share | — |
| Debt to the penny | $40.24T |
Credit rating
| S&P long-term foreign-currency | AA+ |
| Notches below AAA | 1 |
| Investment grade? | Yes |
Ratings current as of 2026-08-10.
Inflation & money
| CPI, year over year | +4.47% |
| CPI, month over month | +0.63% |
| Broad money growth (YoY) | +6.04% |
| QTM implied inflation | +4.30%/yr |
| Market inflation expectation (5y / 10y breakeven) | 2.36% / 2.36% |
QTM = money growth minus real GDP growth, the Hanke-Greenwood method, with a 12–24 month lag. Full table →
Currency
The US dollar is the base currency for this site's FX data, so it has no exchange-rate score. See Currencies for how other currencies are moving against it.
Monetary policy
| Policy rate | 3.88% (3.75–4.00%) |
| Last move | ▲ 0.25 pts |
| Changed on | 2026-09-17 |
| Real policy rate (rate − CPI) | -0.60% |
Source: Federal Reserve (via FRED). Central banking →
Treasury yield curve
| 3 Mo | 4.22% |
| 2 Yr | 4.84% |
| 10 Yr | 5.31% |
| 30 Yr | 5.66% |
| 10y − 2y spread | 0.47 pts |
As of 2026-10-05. Bond auctions →
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Sources: OECD (gross general government debt, CPI); World Bank (interest payments % of revenue, broad money); Eurostat and US Treasury TIC (foreign-held debt); IMF (real GDP growth); ECB via Frankfurter (exchange rates); BIS, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of England (policy rates); S&P (credit ratings, entered manually). Data refreshed Oct 5, 2026. The Bankrupt Baby Risk Score is our own composite indicator, not a credit rating. Educational content only — not financial advice.