Government Debt. Preparing & Preventing
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Sovereign debt crises โข Fiscal meltdowns โข High-risk alerts
| Headline & Summary | Country / Region | Topic | Impact | Date โข Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina teeters on new default brink as debt service reaches 38% of exports IMF tranche delay sparks renewed bondholder tensions. |
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina | Debt Crisis | High | Apr 18, 2026 โข Reuters |
| Lebanon remains in full default since 2020 with no restructuring deal Economy contracted >50% since crisis began. |
๐ฑ๐ง Lebanon | Debt Crisis | High | Apr 20, 2026 โข PIIE |
| Zambia misses another payment as Chinese & Eurobond talks stall Debt service >25% of government revenue. |
๐ฟ๐ฒ Zambia | Debt Crisis | High | Apr 17, 2026 โข World Bank |
| IMF WEO April 2026: Global growth downgraded to 3.1% due to debt risks and conflict High debt service/export ratios make many EMDEs vulnerable. |
๐ Global | GDP โข Debt | High | Apr 14, 2026 โข IMF |
| PIIE: US debt path unsustainable without major fiscal reform Interest costs soon to exceed defense spending. |
๐บ๐ธ United States | Fiscal | High | Apr 2026 โข PIIE |
| Brookings: Return of global imbalances driven by US fiscal stimulus Widening US current account deficit raises stability concerns. |
๐บ๐ธ US / ๐ Global | Current Account | Medium | Apr 2026 โข Brookings |
| OECD Global Debt Report 2026: Sovereign debt hits record highs, OECD debt-to-GDP at 85% Rising interest costs strain advanced economies. |
๐ OECD | Debt | High | Apr 2026 โข OECD |
| Bruegel: EU sovereign debt risks and need for fiscal integration Several member states require substantial adjustments. |
๐ช๐บ European Union | Debt โข Fiscal | Medium | Apr 2026 โข Bruegel |
| CATO Institute: Ballooning US deficits demand credible fiscal rules Long-term projections show unsustainable trajectory. |
๐บ๐ธ United States | Fiscal | Medium | Apr 2026 โข CATO |
| Fraser Institute: High government debt reducing labour productivity in Canada Debt burden particularly harmful to younger generations. |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Debt โข Growth | Medium | Apr 2026 โข Fraser Institute |
| IFS: UK public finances remain vulnerable with high debt interest costs Borrowing plans still ambitious despite forecasts. |
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | Debt | Medium | Apr 2026 โข IFS |
| CEPS: Progress on EU Multiannual Financial Framework amid fiscal pressures Aligning long-term funding with strategic challenges. |
๐ช๐บ European Union | Fiscal | Medium | Apr 2026 โข CEPS |
| Egypt CDS spreads spike to 309 bps amid rising debt-to-GDP concerns Reserves under pressure despite partial tourism recovery. |
๐ช๐ฌ Egypt | Debt Crisis | Medium | Apr 18, 2026 โข World Government Bonds |
Comprehensive coverage from IMF, OECD, PIIE, Brookings, Bruegel, CEPS, CATO, Fraser Institute, IFS and more โข Search & Sort fully working
Investor Demand
Global Bond Auctions
| COUNTRY / BOND | DATE | BID-TO-COVER | HIGH YIELD | NOTE |
|---|
Global Bond Auctions
| COUNTRY / BOND | DATE | BID-TO-COVER | HIGH YIELD | NOTE |
|---|
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Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2024 actuals, some 2025โ2026 projections)
| Country | Debt-to-GDP (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 272 | 2024 |
| Japan | 237 | 2024 |
| Singapore | 173 | 2024 |
| Venezuela | 164 | 2024 |
| Lebanon | 164 | 2024 |
| Eritrea | 164 | 2024 |
| Greece | 154 | 2024 |
| Italy | 137 | 2025 |
| Bahrain | 134 | 2024 |
| United States | 124 | 2024/25 |
| France | 116 | 2025 |
| Canada | 111 | 2024 |
| Cape Verde | 109 | 2024 |
| Bhutan | 108 | 2024 |
| Belgium | 104 | 2024 |
| Spain | 102 | 2025 |
| United Kingdom | 94 | 2024 |
| China | 88 | 2024 |
| India | 82 | 2024 |
| Germany | 62 | 2024 |
| Australia | 44 | 2024 |
| Russia | 18 | 2025 |
| Kuwait | 3 | 2024 |
| Brunei | 2.3 | 2024 |
Note: Debt-to-GDP ratios are general government gross debt unless noted. Values can vary slightly between sources (IMF vs national statistics). For the most up-to-date figures, check the IMF Data Mapper.
Real GDP Growth by Country
Annual percent change โ Latest projections (mostly 2026, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 and related sources)
| Country | Real GDP Growth (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Guyana | 16.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Ethiopia | 9.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Guinea | 8.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Rwanda | 7.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Bhutan | 7.5 | 2026 proj. |
| Armenia | 5.3 | 2026 proj. |
| India | 6.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Bangladesh | 4.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Indonesia | 4.9 | 2026 proj. |
| China | 4.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Turkey | 3.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Argentina | 3.5 | 2026 proj. |
| Algeria | 3.8 | 2026 proj. |
| Vietnam (approx.) | 6.0โ6.5 | 2026 est. |
| United States | 2.1 | 2026 proj. |
| Australia | 2.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Canada (approx.) | 1.8 | 2026 proj. |
| United Kingdom | ~1.3 | 2026 proj. |
| Germany | 0.9 | 2026 proj. |
| France | 0.9 | 2026 proj. |
| Japan | 0.6 | 2026 proj. |
| Euro Area | 1.4 | 2026 proj. |
| Russia | 1.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Brazil | 1.9 | 2026 proj. |
Note: Values represent real GDP growth (annual % change). High-growth countries are often driven by oil discoveries, infrastructure booms, or demographic dividends. Advanced economies generally show more modest growth. For the most up-to-date and comprehensive data, visit the IMF Data Mapper (World Economic Outlook) or Trading Economics.
CPI Inflation Rate by Country
Latest available data (mostly March 2026 or Q1 2026, year-over-year % change)
| Country | Inflation Rate (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 649 | Mar/26 |
| Argentina | 32.6 | Mar/26 |
| Angola | 12.42 | Mar/26 |
| Nigeria | 15.38 | Mar/26 |
| Tรผrkiye (Turkey) | 30.65 | Jan/26 |
| Iran | 42.4 | 2025 est. |
| Zimbabwe | 89 | 2025 |
| Sudan | 87.2 | 2025 |
| South Sudan | 97.5 | 2025 |
| United States | 3.3 | Mar/26 |
| Euro Area | 2.6 | Mar/26 |
| United Kingdom | 3.0 | Jan/26 |
| China | 1.0 | Mar/26 |
| Japan | ~1.5 | Jan/26 |
| Germany | ~2.1 | Jan/26 |
| France | 1.7 | Mar/26 |
| Canada | 1.8 | Feb/26 |
| Australia | 3.7 | Feb/26 |
| Brazil | 4.14 | Mar/26 |
| India | ~4.5 | Recent |
| Russia | ~7-8 | 2026 est. |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | Mar/26 |
| Singapore | 1.2 | Feb/26 |
| Switzerland | 0.3 | Mar/26 |
Note: Values are year-over-year CPI inflation (%). Hyperinflation countries (e.g. Venezuela) can show extreme volatility. For the most precise and up-to-date figures, visit Trading Economics or the IMF Data Mapper.
5-Year Government Bond Yields by Country
Latest available data (as of mid-April 2026, in percent)
| Country | 5-Year Bond Yield (%) | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 14.76 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Brazil | ~13.6 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Turkey | ~28โ30 (longer tenor influence) | Recent |
| Mexico | 8.84 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| India | ~6.9 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| South Africa | ~9โ10 | Recent |
| Australia | 4.69 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United Kingdom | ~4.3โ4.7 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United States | 3.84 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Canada | 3.05 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Germany | ~2.8โ3.0 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| France | ~3.0โ3.2 | Recent |
| Italy | 3.00 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Japan | ~1.4โ1.8 | Recent |
| China | ~1.7โ2.0 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~2.5โ3.0 | Recent |
| Singapore | ~2.0โ2.5 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~4.2 | Recent |
Note: 5-year government bond yields reflect market expectations for interest rates, inflation, and credit risk over the medium term. Yields can fluctuate daily based on economic data, central bank policy, and global events. Emerging markets often show higher yields due to higher risk premiums. For real-time or more comprehensive data, visit Trading Economics 5Y Bonds or Investing.com World Government Bonds.
Sovereign 5-Year CDS Spreads by Country
Latest available data (as of mid-April 2026, in basis points)
| Country | CDS Spread (bps) | Period / Date |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 13,775 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Venezuela | ~9,150+ | Recent est. |
| Egypt | 309 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Turkey | 237 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Argentina | ~600โ800+ | Recent |
| Brazil | 91โ133 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| South Africa | 151 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Mexico | ~90 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United States | 35 | 17โ18 Apr 2026 |
| Italy | 32 | 16 Apr 2026 |
| France | ~28 | Recent |
| United Kingdom | 19 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Canada | 19 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Germany | ~8โ12 | Recent |
| Japan | ~27 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | 66 | 15 Apr 2026 |
| Australia | ~15โ20 | Recent |
| China | ~40โ60 | Recent |
| India | ~70โ90 | Recent |
Note: Sovereign CDS spreads measure the annual cost (in basis points) to insure against default on a country's sovereign debt (typically 5-year tenor). Extremely high values (e.g., Russia) often reflect sanctions, illiquidity, or distressed conditions. For real-time or more comprehensive quotes, check World Government Bonds or Investing.com CDS.
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2025 actuals, some 2026 estimates)
| Country | Current Account (% of GDP) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 16.7 | Dec/25 |
| Netherlands | 7.9 | Dec/25 |
| South Korea | 6.6 | Dec/25 |
| Switzerland | 5.1 | Dec/24 |
| Japan | 4.7 | Dec/25 |
| Germany | 4.5 | Dec/25 |
| China | 3.7 | Dec/25 |
| Spain | 2.9 | Dec/25 |
| Italy | ~2.5 | Recent |
| Norway | ~10โ15 (oil-driven) | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | ~5โ8 | 2025 est. |
| United States | -3.6 | Dec/25 |
| United Kingdom | -3.5 | Recent |
| France | -0.8 | Recent |
| Canada | -0.1 | Dec/25 |
| Australia | -2.9 | Dec/25 |
| Brazil | -2.3 | Dec/25 |
| India | -1.5 | Recent |
| Turkey | -1.6 | 2025 |
| Russia | ~1.5 | 2025 est. |
Note: Positive values indicate a current account surplus; negative values indicate a deficit. The current account includes trade balance, net income from abroad, and net transfers. For the most up-to-date figures, check Trading Economics or the IMF Data Mapper.
Short-Term Debt to Reserves (% of Total Reserves) by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2024, some 2025 estimates)
| Country | Short-Term Debt to Reserves (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 36,315 | 2024 |
| Netherlands | ~800โ1,200+ | 2024 est. |
| Ireland | ~1,500+ | Recent |
| Singapore | ~400โ600 | 2024 |
| Tรผrkiye (Turkey) | 114 | 2024 |
| Argentina | 164 | 2024 |
| Tunisia | 171 | 2024 |
| Georgia | 109 | 2024 |
| Pakistan | 52 | 2024 |
| Egypt | 69 | 2024 |
| United States | ~15โ25 | Recent |
| Germany | ~20โ40 | Recent |
| Japan | ~10โ20 | Recent |
| China | ~30โ50 | 2024 |
| India | ~20 | Recent |
| Brazil | ~40โ60 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~60โ80 | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | ~15โ30 | Recent |
| Russia | ~30โ50 | Recent |
| Australia | ~25โ40 | Recent |
Note: Short-term debt to reserves measures short-term external debt (maturing within one year) as a percentage of total international reserves. Values above 100% indicate potential liquidity pressure if short-term obligations cannot be rolled over. Financial centers (e.g., Luxembourg) often show extremely high ratios due to international banking activity. For the most up-to-date figures, check World Bank Data or TheGlobalEconomy.com.
Debt Service to Exports (% of Exports of Goods, Services & Primary Income) by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2023โ2024, some 2025 estimates)
| Country | Debt Service / Exports (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 38.3 | 2024 |
| Angola | 28.9 | 2024 |
| Egypt | ~25โ30 | 2024 est. |
| Tรผrkiye (Turkey) | ~22โ28 | Recent |
| Pakistan | ~20โ25 | 2024 |
| Sri Lanka | ~18โ22 (post-restructuring) | 2024 |
| Zambia | ~25+ | Recent |
| Brazil | ~15โ20 | 2024 |
| South Africa | ~12โ18 | 2024 |
| Nigeria | ~15โ20 | Recent |
| Kenya | ~18 | 2024 |
| Ethiopia | ~20+ | Recent |
| India | ~8โ12 | 2024 |
| Indonesia | ~10โ14 | 2024 |
| Mexico | ~12 | 2024 |
| China | ~5โ8 | Recent |
| United States | ~4โ6 | Recent |
| Germany | ~3โ5 | Recent |
| Japan | ~2โ4 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~8โ12 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~6โ9 | Recent |
Note: Debt service to exports measures total external debt service (principal + interest) as a percentage of exports of goods, services, and primary income. Higher ratios signal greater pressure on foreign exchange earnings and potential debt sustainability risks, especially for commodity-dependent or low-income countries. For the most precise and up-to-date figures, check the World Bank Data or Trading Economics.
External Debt to GDP by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2024โ2025, some 2026 estimates)
| Country | External Debt to GDP (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 3937 | Dec/25 |
| Malta | 787 | Dec/25 |
| Ireland | 507 | Dec/25 |
| Cyprus | 620 | Dec/25 |
| Netherlands | 345 | Dec/25 |
| Singapore | 402 | 2025 |
| Austria | 150 | Dec/25 |
| Belgium | 245 | Sep/25 |
| Canada | 148 | 2025 |
| France | 250 | 2024 |
| United Kingdom | 278 | Sep/25 |
| United States | 88 | Sep/25 |
| Germany | 145 | Sep/25 |
| Australia | 108 | 2025 |
| New Zealand | 89 | Recent |
| Japan | 106 | Dec/25 |
| China | 12 | 2025 |
| India | ~20 | Recent |
| Brazil | 29 | 2025 |
| Mexico | 7 | Dec/24 |
| Argentina | 26 | Dec/24 |
| Russia | ~15โ20 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~20 | Recent |
Note: External debt includes both public and private sector debt owed to non-residents. Very high ratios in financial hubs (Luxembourg, Ireland, etc.) are common due to international banking and corporate structures. For the most up-to-date figures, check Trading Economics or the World Bank International Debt Statistics.
CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker
Sovereign Risk Index (0โ10) โ Likelihood of default within 5 years (10 = โฅ50% probability)
| Country | CFR Sovereign Risk Index | Notes / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 10 | In default |
| Belarus | 10 | In default |
| Lebanon | 10 | In default |
| Argentina | 9.5 | High vulnerability |
| Egypt | 8.8 | Elevated risk |
| Pakistan | 8.5 | High vulnerability |
| Turkey | 8.2 | Elevated risk |
| Ukraine | 8.0 | Geopolitical stress |
| Tunisia | 7.9 | Elevated risk |
| Nigeria | 7.6 | High vulnerability |
| South Africa | 6.5 | Moderate-high risk |
| Brazil | 5.8 | Moderate risk |
| India | 4.2 | Moderate risk |
| Indonesia | 4.0 | Moderate risk |
| Mexico | 4.5 | Moderate risk |
| Philippines | 3.8 | Moderate risk |
| China | 3.5 | Lower relative risk |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.8 | Lower relative risk |
| Chile | 2.5 | Lower relative risk |
| Poland | 2.2 | Lower relative risk |
| Korea (South) | 1.8 | Low risk |
Note: The CFR Sovereign Risk Index gauges vulnerability of emerging and frontier markets to external debt default. It is primarily based on CDS spreads (where available), sovereign credit ratings, or modeled political-risk factors. Values of 10 indicate โฅ50% estimated probability of default within 5 years. The tracker also includes supporting indicators such as current account balance (% GDP), external debt (% GDP), reserve-adequacy ratio, government debt (% GDP), fiscal balance, FX-denominated debt, political instability index, and CDS spreads. For the full interactive map and latest country-specific details, visit the official CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker (last major update: May 21, 2025).