
Latest on debt, inflation, GDP, yields, CDS & sovereign risk β April 2026
| Headline & Summary | Country / Region | Topic | Impact | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
IMF WEO April 2026: Global growth downgraded to 3.1% in 2026 due to Middle East conflict; inflation projected to rise to 4.4% War adds downside risks, especially for commodity-importing emerging markets. Adverse scenario sees growth at 2.5%. |
π Global / EMDEs | GDP β’ Inflation | High | Apr 14β19, 2026 |
|
IMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2026: Elevated public debt and rollover risks heighten sovereign-bank nexus concerns War in Middle East amplifies financial stability risks; policymakers urged to strengthen resilience and liquidity facilities. |
π Global | Debt β’ Risk | High | Apr 14, 2026 |
|
G7 Government Bond Yields Surge Post-Pandemic and Conflicts; UK Faces Highest Borrowing Costs Among Peers Energy import dependence and fiscal pressures intensify debt servicing pain across developed economies. |
π¬π§ UK β’ π G7 | Yields β’ Debt | High | Apr 14, 2026 |
|
Sovereign Borrowers Launch UN-Backed Platform to Strengthen Collective Voice in Debt Negotiations Developing nations seek better terms amid rising debt distress and costly financing. |
π Developing Economies | Debt | Medium | Apr 15, 2026 |
|
5-Year Government Bond Yields Update (Apr 17β18): US ~3.84%, Brazil ~13.6%, Australia ~4.69%; curve steepener trades gain traction Markets pricing slower growth and higher debt issuance; ceasefire signals ease some near-term pressure. |
πΊπΈ US β’ π§π· Brazil β’ π¦πΊ Australia | Yields | Medium | Apr 17β18, 2026 |
|
Sovereign CDS Spreads (Apr 18): Russia remains extremely elevated (~13,775 bps), Turkey 237 bps, Egypt 309 bps, US ~35 bps Persistent risk differentiation in emerging markets amid geopolitical tensions. |
π·πΊ Russia β’ πΉπ· Turkey β’ πͺπ¬ Egypt β’ πΊπΈ US | CDS β’ Risk | High | Apr 18, 2026 |
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IMF Notes Lack of Sovereign Debt Reduction Before Middle East War; Buffers Eroded for Future Crises Despite favorable conditions earlier, many nations failed to rebuild fiscal space. |
π Global | Debt β’ Fiscal | High | Apr 15, 2026 |
|
Emerging Markets Growth Slows to ~4.5% in 2026 (ex-China); Energy Price Shocks Hit Commodity Importers Downward revisions in Latin America and parts of Asia due to indirect war effects. |
π EMs (ex-China) | GDP | Medium | Apr 2026 |
|
US Treasury Yield Curve Steepener Trades Intensify on Bets for Slower Growth and Higher Debt Issuance 5/30 spread offers room to widen as markets look past near-term turmoil. |
πΊπΈ United States | Yields | Medium | Apr 14, 2026 |
|
OECD Global Debt Report 2026: Sovereign Borrowing Projected to Rise to 24% of GDP in 2026 Refinancing risks grow as long-term yields remain elevated. |
π OECD | Debt | High | MarβApr 2026 |
Note: Curated feed focused on sovereign economic indicators. Data based on latest public sources as of April 19, 2026. Click headlines for full articles (some links are illustrative). Auto-refresh runs every 60 seconds.
Latest available data (mostly 2024 actuals, some 2025β2026 projections)
| Country | Debt-to-GDP (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 272 | 2024 |
| Japan | 237 | 2024 |
| Singapore | 173 | 2024 |
| Venezuela | 164 | 2024 |
| Lebanon | 164 | 2024 |
| Eritrea | 164 | 2024 |
| Greece | 154 | 2024 |
| Italy | 137 | 2025 |
| Bahrain | 134 | 2024 |
| United States | 124 | 2024/25 |
| France | 116 | 2025 |
| Canada | 111 | 2024 |
| Cape Verde | 109 | 2024 |
| Bhutan | 108 | 2024 |
| Belgium | 104 | 2024 |
| Spain | 102 | 2025 |
| United Kingdom | 94 | 2024 |
| China | 88 | 2024 |
| India | 82 | 2024 |
| Germany | 62 | 2024 |
| Australia | 44 | 2024 |
| Russia | 18 | 2025 |
| Kuwait | 3 | 2024 |
| Brunei | 2.3 | 2024 |
Note: Debt-to-GDP ratios are general government gross debt unless noted. Values can vary slightly between sources (IMF vs national statistics). For the most up-to-date figures, check the IMF Data Mapper.
Annual percent change β Latest projections (mostly 2026, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 and related sources)
| Country | Real GDP Growth (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Guyana | 16.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Ethiopia | 9.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Guinea | 8.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Rwanda | 7.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Bhutan | 7.5 | 2026 proj. |
| Armenia | 5.3 | 2026 proj. |
| India | 6.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Bangladesh | 4.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Indonesia | 4.9 | 2026 proj. |
| China | 4.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Turkey | 3.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Argentina | 3.5 | 2026 proj. |
| Algeria | 3.8 | 2026 proj. |
| Vietnam (approx.) | 6.0β6.5 | 2026 est. |
| United States | 2.1 | 2026 proj. |
| Australia | 2.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Canada (approx.) | 1.8 | 2026 proj. |
| United Kingdom | ~1.3 | 2026 proj. |
| Germany | 0.9 | 2026 proj. |
| France | 0.9 | 2026 proj. |
| Japan | 0.6 | 2026 proj. |
| Euro Area | 1.4 | 2026 proj. |
| Russia | 1.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Brazil | 1.9 | 2026 proj. |
Note: Values represent real GDP growth (annual % change). High-growth countries are often driven by oil discoveries, infrastructure booms, or demographic dividends. Advanced economies generally show more modest growth. For the most up-to-date and comprehensive data, visit the IMF Data Mapper (World Economic Outlook) or Trading Economics.
Latest available data (mostly March 2026 or Q1 2026, year-over-year % change)
| Country | Inflation Rate (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 649 | Mar/26 |
| Argentina | 32.6 | Mar/26 |
| Angola | 12.42 | Mar/26 |
| Nigeria | 15.38 | Mar/26 |
| TΓΌrkiye (Turkey) | 30.65 | Jan/26 |
| Iran | 42.4 | 2025 est. |
| Zimbabwe | 89 | 2025 |
| Sudan | 87.2 | 2025 |
| South Sudan | 97.5 | 2025 |
| United States | 3.3 | Mar/26 |
| Euro Area | 2.6 | Mar/26 |
| United Kingdom | 3.0 | Jan/26 |
| China | 1.0 | Mar/26 |
| Japan | ~1.5 | Jan/26 |
| Germany | ~2.1 | Jan/26 |
| France | 1.7 | Mar/26 |
| Canada | 1.8 | Feb/26 |
| Australia | 3.7 | Feb/26 |
| Brazil | 4.14 | Mar/26 |
| India | ~4.5 | Recent |
| Russia | ~7-8 | 2026 est. |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | Mar/26 |
| Singapore | 1.2 | Feb/26 |
| Switzerland | 0.3 | Mar/26 |
Note: Values are year-over-year CPI inflation (%). Hyperinflation countries (e.g. Venezuela) can show extreme volatility. For the most precise and up-to-date figures, visit Trading Economics or the IMF Data Mapper.
Latest available data (as of mid-April 2026, in percent)
| Country | 5-Year Bond Yield (%) | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 14.76 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Brazil | ~13.6 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Turkey | ~28β30 (longer tenor influence) | Recent |
| Mexico | 8.84 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| India | ~6.9 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| South Africa | ~9β10 | Recent |
| Australia | 4.69 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United Kingdom | ~4.3β4.7 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United States | 3.84 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Canada | 3.05 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Germany | ~2.8β3.0 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| France | ~3.0β3.2 | Recent |
| Italy | 3.00 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Japan | ~1.4β1.8 | Recent |
| China | ~1.7β2.0 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~2.5β3.0 | Recent |
| Singapore | ~2.0β2.5 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~4.2 | Recent |
Note: 5-year government bond yields reflect market expectations for interest rates, inflation, and credit risk over the medium term. Yields can fluctuate daily based on economic data, central bank policy, and global events. Emerging markets often show higher yields due to higher risk premiums. For real-time or more comprehensive data, visit Trading Economics 5Y Bonds or Investing.com World Government Bonds.
Latest available data (as of mid-April 2026, in basis points)
| Country | CDS Spread (bps) | Period / Date |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 13,775 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Venezuela | ~9,150+ | Recent est. |
| Egypt | 309 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Turkey | 237 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Argentina | ~600β800+ | Recent |
| Brazil | 91β133 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| South Africa | 151 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Mexico | ~90 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United States | 35 | 17β18 Apr 2026 |
| Italy | 32 | 16 Apr 2026 |
| France | ~28 | Recent |
| United Kingdom | 19 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Canada | 19 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Germany | ~8β12 | Recent |
| Japan | ~27 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | 66 | 15 Apr 2026 |
| Australia | ~15β20 | Recent |
| China | ~40β60 | Recent |
| India | ~70β90 | Recent |
Note: Sovereign CDS spreads measure the annual cost (in basis points) to insure against default on a country's sovereign debt (typically 5-year tenor). Extremely high values (e.g., Russia) often reflect sanctions, illiquidity, or distressed conditions. For real-time or more comprehensive quotes, check World Government Bonds or Investing.com CDS.
Latest available data (mostly 2025 actuals, some 2026 estimates)
| Country | Current Account (% of GDP) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 16.7 | Dec/25 |
| Netherlands | 7.9 | Dec/25 |
| South Korea | 6.6 | Dec/25 |
| Switzerland | 5.1 | Dec/24 |
| Japan | 4.7 | Dec/25 |
| Germany | 4.5 | Dec/25 |
| China | 3.7 | Dec/25 |
| Spain | 2.9 | Dec/25 |
| Italy | ~2.5 | Recent |
| Norway | ~10β15 (oil-driven) | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | ~5β8 | 2025 est. |
| United States | -3.6 | Dec/25 |
| United Kingdom | -3.5 | Recent |
| France | -0.8 | Recent |
| Canada | -0.1 | Dec/25 |
| Australia | -2.9 | Dec/25 |
| Brazil | -2.3 | Dec/25 |
| India | -1.5 | Recent |
| Turkey | -1.6 | 2025 |
| Russia | ~1.5 | 2025 est. |
Note: Positive values indicate a current account surplus; negative values indicate a deficit. The current account includes trade balance, net income from abroad, and net transfers. For the most up-to-date figures, check Trading Economics or the IMF Data Mapper.
Latest available data (mostly 2024, some 2025 estimates)
| Country | Short-Term Debt to Reserves (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 36,315 | 2024 |
| Netherlands | ~800β1,200+ | 2024 est. |
| Ireland | ~1,500+ | Recent |
| Singapore | ~400β600 | 2024 |
| TΓΌrkiye (Turkey) | 114 | 2024 |
| Argentina | 164 | 2024 |
| Tunisia | 171 | 2024 |
| Georgia | 109 | 2024 |
| Pakistan | 52 | 2024 |
| Egypt | 69 | 2024 |
| United States | ~15β25 | Recent |
| Germany | ~20β40 | Recent |
| Japan | ~10β20 | Recent |
| China | ~30β50 | 2024 |
| India | ~20 | Recent |
| Brazil | ~40β60 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~60β80 | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | ~15β30 | Recent |
| Russia | ~30β50 | Recent |
| Australia | ~25β40 | Recent |
Note: Short-term debt to reserves measures short-term external debt (maturing within one year) as a percentage of total international reserves. Values above 100% indicate potential liquidity pressure if short-term obligations cannot be rolled over. Financial centers (e.g., Luxembourg) often show extremely high ratios due to international banking activity. For the most up-to-date figures, check World Bank Data or TheGlobalEconomy.com.
Latest available data (mostly 2023β2024, some 2025 estimates)
| Country | Debt Service / Exports (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 38.3 | 2024 |
| Angola | 28.9 | 2024 |
| Egypt | ~25β30 | 2024 est. |
| TΓΌrkiye (Turkey) | ~22β28 | Recent |
| Pakistan | ~20β25 | 2024 |
| Sri Lanka | ~18β22 (post-restructuring) | 2024 |
| Zambia | ~25+ | Recent |
| Brazil | ~15β20 | 2024 |
| South Africa | ~12β18 | 2024 |
| Nigeria | ~15β20 | Recent |
| Kenya | ~18 | 2024 |
| Ethiopia | ~20+ | Recent |
| India | ~8β12 | 2024 |
| Indonesia | ~10β14 | 2024 |
| Mexico | ~12 | 2024 |
| China | ~5β8 | Recent |
| United States | ~4β6 | Recent |
| Germany | ~3β5 | Recent |
| Japan | ~2β4 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~8β12 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~6β9 | Recent |
Note: Debt service to exports measures total external debt service (principal + interest) as a percentage of exports of goods, services, and primary income. Higher ratios signal greater pressure on foreign exchange earnings and potential debt sustainability risks, especially for commodity-dependent or low-income countries. For the most precise and up-to-date figures, check the World Bank Data or Trading Economics.
Latest available data (mostly 2024β2025, some 2026 estimates)
| Country | External Debt to GDP (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 3937 | Dec/25 |
| Malta | 787 | Dec/25 |
| Ireland | 507 | Dec/25 |
| Cyprus | 620 | Dec/25 |
| Netherlands | 345 | Dec/25 |
| Singapore | 402 | 2025 |
| Austria | 150 | Dec/25 |
| Belgium | 245 | Sep/25 |
| Canada | 148 | 2025 |
| France | 250 | 2024 |
| United Kingdom | 278 | Sep/25 |
| United States | 88 | Sep/25 |
| Germany | 145 | Sep/25 |
| Australia | 108 | 2025 |
| New Zealand | 89 | Recent |
| Japan | 106 | Dec/25 |
| China | 12 | 2025 |
| India | ~20 | Recent |
| Brazil | 29 | 2025 |
| Mexico | 7 | Dec/24 |
| Argentina | 26 | Dec/24 |
| Russia | ~15β20 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~20 | Recent |
Note: External debt includes both public and private sector debt owed to non-residents. Very high ratios in financial hubs (Luxembourg, Ireland, etc.) are common due to international banking and corporate structures. For the most up-to-date figures, check Trading Economics or the World Bank International Debt Statistics.
Sovereign Risk Index (0β10) β Likelihood of default within 5 years (10 = β₯50% probability)
| Country | CFR Sovereign Risk Index | Notes / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 10 | In default |
| Belarus | 10 | In default |
| Lebanon | 10 | In default |
| Argentina | 9.5 | High vulnerability |
| Egypt | 8.8 | Elevated risk |
| Pakistan | 8.5 | High vulnerability |
| Turkey | 8.2 | Elevated risk |
| Ukraine | 8.0 | Geopolitical stress |
| Tunisia | 7.9 | Elevated risk |
| Nigeria | 7.6 | High vulnerability |
| South Africa | 6.5 | Moderate-high risk |
| Brazil | 5.8 | Moderate risk |
| India | 4.2 | Moderate risk |
| Indonesia | 4.0 | Moderate risk |
| Mexico | 4.5 | Moderate risk |
| Philippines | 3.8 | Moderate risk |
| China | 3.5 | Lower relative risk |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.8 | Lower relative risk |
| Chile | 2.5 | Lower relative risk |
| Poland | 2.2 | Lower relative risk |
| Korea (South) | 1.8 | Low risk |
Note: The CFR Sovereign Risk Index gauges vulnerability of emerging and frontier markets to external debt default. It is primarily based on CDS spreads (where available), sovereign credit ratings, or modeled political-risk factors. Values of 10 indicate β₯50% estimated probability of default within 5 years. The tracker also includes supporting indicators such as current account balance (% GDP), external debt (% GDP), reserve-adequacy ratio, government debt (% GDP), fiscal balance, FX-denominated debt, political instability index, and CDS spreads. For the full interactive map and latest country-specific details, visit the official CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker (last major update: May 21, 2025).