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Sovereign Economic News Feed
Debt, fiscal policy, GDP, yields, CDS & sovereign risk — April 2026
| Headline & Summary | Country / Region | Topic | Impact | Date • Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PIIE: What researchers will watch in 2026 – US debt trajectory, EU fiscal knife fight, Iran crisis, and global collective action risks Concerns over ballooning US deficits, EU budget negotiations, and debt problems in low/middle-income countries. |
🇺🇸 US • 🌍 Global | Debt • Fiscal | High | Jan–Apr 2026 • PIIE |
|
Brookings-FT TIGER Indexes April 2026: Year of economic healing turns into year of peril due to Middle East conflict Pre-war resilience gives way to downside risks from geopolitical shocks and rising public debt levels. |
🌍 Global | GDP • Risk | High | Apr 12, 2026 • Brookings |
|
IMF WEO April 2026: Global growth downgraded to 3.1%; inflation rises amid conflict Downside risks elevated for emerging markets with high debt vulnerabilities. |
🌍 Global / EMDEs | GDP • Inflation | High | Apr 14, 2026 • IMF |
|
OECD Global Debt Report 2026: Sovereign debt hits record levels; OECD area debt-to-GDP to 85% in 2026 Rising interest costs and investor base shifts increase refinancing pressures. |
🌍 OECD / Global | Debt • Fiscal | High | Mar–Apr 2026 • OECD |
|
Institute for Fiscal Studies: Spring Forecast 2026 – UK public finances remain vulnerable; debt high and borrowing plans ambitious Borrowing to fall but gross financing requirement stays elevated; debt interest costs a major concern. |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Debt • Fiscal | High | Mar–Apr 2026 • IFS |
|
Bruegel: The European Union’s external imbalances – past, future and policy implications (April 2026) Large current account surplus; scope to stimulate investment and lower surplus via capital markets integration and fiscal rules reform. |
🇪🇺 European Union | Current Account • Fiscal | Medium | Apr 13–16, 2026 • Bruegel |
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Bruegel: Sovereign debt risks and fiscal integration in the European Union Stochastic debt sustainability analysis shows most EU countries sustainable but substantial adjustments needed in some cases. |
🇪🇺 EU / Euro Area | Debt • Risk | High | Nov 2025–Apr 2026 • Bruegel |
|
CATO Institute: Fiscal Policy – Debt growing faster than economy risks higher taxes or inflation Advocates credible fiscal rules to stabilize US public debt trajectory. |
🇺🇸 United States | Debt • Fiscal | High | Apr 2026 • CATO |
|
Fraser Institute: High government debt reduces labour productivity in Canada Reducing debt could boost average worker incomes significantly. |
🇨🇦 Canada | Debt • Growth | High | 2025–Apr 2026 • Fraser Institute |
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5-Year Government Bond Yields Update (mid-April 2026): US ~3.84%, Brazil ~13.6%, UK ~4.25–4.69% Yields easing slightly but fiscal concerns persist. |
🇺🇸 US • 🇬🇧 UK • 🇧🇷 Brazil | Yields | Medium | Apr 17–18, 2026 • Trading Economics |
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Sovereign CDS Spreads (Apr 18): Russia ~13,775 bps, Turkey 237 bps, Egypt 309 bps Extreme risk pricing in select emerging markets. |
🇷🇺 Russia • 🇹🇷 Turkey • 🇪🇬 Egypt | CDS • Risk | High | Apr 18, 2026 • World Government Bonds |
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PIIE: Olivier Blanchard on how Eurobonds could secure financing for Europe Discussion on deeper fiscal integration to support European resilience and military/aid spending. |
🇪🇺 Europe | Fiscal • Debt | Medium | Apr 2026 • PIIE |
Global Bond Auctions
| COUNTRY / BOND | DATE | BID-TO-COVER | HIGH YIELD | NOTE |
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Global Bond Auctions
| COUNTRY / BOND | DATE | BID-TO-COVER | HIGH YIELD | NOTE |
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Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2024 actuals, some 2025–2026 projections)
| Country | Debt-to-GDP (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 272 | 2024 |
| Japan | 237 | 2024 |
| Singapore | 173 | 2024 |
| Venezuela | 164 | 2024 |
| Lebanon | 164 | 2024 |
| Eritrea | 164 | 2024 |
| Greece | 154 | 2024 |
| Italy | 137 | 2025 |
| Bahrain | 134 | 2024 |
| United States | 124 | 2024/25 |
| France | 116 | 2025 |
| Canada | 111 | 2024 |
| Cape Verde | 109 | 2024 |
| Bhutan | 108 | 2024 |
| Belgium | 104 | 2024 |
| Spain | 102 | 2025 |
| United Kingdom | 94 | 2024 |
| China | 88 | 2024 |
| India | 82 | 2024 |
| Germany | 62 | 2024 |
| Australia | 44 | 2024 |
| Russia | 18 | 2025 |
| Kuwait | 3 | 2024 |
| Brunei | 2.3 | 2024 |
Note: Debt-to-GDP ratios are general government gross debt unless noted. Values can vary slightly between sources (IMF vs national statistics). For the most up-to-date figures, check the IMF Data Mapper.
Real GDP Growth by Country
Annual percent change — Latest projections (mostly 2026, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 and related sources)
| Country | Real GDP Growth (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Guyana | 16.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Ethiopia | 9.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Guinea | 8.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Rwanda | 7.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Bhutan | 7.5 | 2026 proj. |
| Armenia | 5.3 | 2026 proj. |
| India | 6.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Bangladesh | 4.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Indonesia | 4.9 | 2026 proj. |
| China | 4.2 | 2026 proj. |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Turkey | 3.7 | 2026 proj. |
| Argentina | 3.5 | 2026 proj. |
| Algeria | 3.8 | 2026 proj. |
| Vietnam (approx.) | 6.0–6.5 | 2026 est. |
| United States | 2.1 | 2026 proj. |
| Australia | 2.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Canada (approx.) | 1.8 | 2026 proj. |
| United Kingdom | ~1.3 | 2026 proj. |
| Germany | 0.9 | 2026 proj. |
| France | 0.9 | 2026 proj. |
| Japan | 0.6 | 2026 proj. |
| Euro Area | 1.4 | 2026 proj. |
| Russia | 1.0 | 2026 proj. |
| Brazil | 1.9 | 2026 proj. |
Note: Values represent real GDP growth (annual % change). High-growth countries are often driven by oil discoveries, infrastructure booms, or demographic dividends. Advanced economies generally show more modest growth. For the most up-to-date and comprehensive data, visit the IMF Data Mapper (World Economic Outlook) or Trading Economics.
CPI Inflation Rate by Country
Latest available data (mostly March 2026 or Q1 2026, year-over-year % change)
| Country | Inflation Rate (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 649 | Mar/26 |
| Argentina | 32.6 | Mar/26 |
| Angola | 12.42 | Mar/26 |
| Nigeria | 15.38 | Mar/26 |
| Türkiye (Turkey) | 30.65 | Jan/26 |
| Iran | 42.4 | 2025 est. |
| Zimbabwe | 89 | 2025 |
| Sudan | 87.2 | 2025 |
| South Sudan | 97.5 | 2025 |
| United States | 3.3 | Mar/26 |
| Euro Area | 2.6 | Mar/26 |
| United Kingdom | 3.0 | Jan/26 |
| China | 1.0 | Mar/26 |
| Japan | ~1.5 | Jan/26 |
| Germany | ~2.1 | Jan/26 |
| France | 1.7 | Mar/26 |
| Canada | 1.8 | Feb/26 |
| Australia | 3.7 | Feb/26 |
| Brazil | 4.14 | Mar/26 |
| India | ~4.5 | Recent |
| Russia | ~7-8 | 2026 est. |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | Mar/26 |
| Singapore | 1.2 | Feb/26 |
| Switzerland | 0.3 | Mar/26 |
Note: Values are year-over-year CPI inflation (%). Hyperinflation countries (e.g. Venezuela) can show extreme volatility. For the most precise and up-to-date figures, visit Trading Economics or the IMF Data Mapper.
5-Year Government Bond Yields by Country
Latest available data (as of mid-April 2026, in percent)
| Country | 5-Year Bond Yield (%) | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 14.76 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Brazil | ~13.6 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Turkey | ~28–30 (longer tenor influence) | Recent |
| Mexico | 8.84 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| India | ~6.9 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| South Africa | ~9–10 | Recent |
| Australia | 4.69 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United Kingdom | ~4.3–4.7 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United States | 3.84 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Canada | 3.05 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Germany | ~2.8–3.0 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| France | ~3.0–3.2 | Recent |
| Italy | 3.00 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Japan | ~1.4–1.8 | Recent |
| China | ~1.7–2.0 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~2.5–3.0 | Recent |
| Singapore | ~2.0–2.5 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~4.2 | Recent |
Note: 5-year government bond yields reflect market expectations for interest rates, inflation, and credit risk over the medium term. Yields can fluctuate daily based on economic data, central bank policy, and global events. Emerging markets often show higher yields due to higher risk premiums. For real-time or more comprehensive data, visit Trading Economics 5Y Bonds or Investing.com World Government Bonds.
Sovereign 5-Year CDS Spreads by Country
Latest available data (as of mid-April 2026, in basis points)
| Country | CDS Spread (bps) | Period / Date |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 13,775 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Venezuela | ~9,150+ | Recent est. |
| Egypt | 309 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Turkey | 237 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Argentina | ~600–800+ | Recent |
| Brazil | 91–133 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| South Africa | 151 | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Mexico | ~90 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| United States | 35 | 17–18 Apr 2026 |
| Italy | 32 | 16 Apr 2026 |
| France | ~28 | Recent |
| United Kingdom | 19 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Canada | 19 | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Germany | ~8–12 | Recent |
| Japan | ~27 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | 66 | 15 Apr 2026 |
| Australia | ~15–20 | Recent |
| China | ~40–60 | Recent |
| India | ~70–90 | Recent |
Note: Sovereign CDS spreads measure the annual cost (in basis points) to insure against default on a country's sovereign debt (typically 5-year tenor). Extremely high values (e.g., Russia) often reflect sanctions, illiquidity, or distressed conditions. For real-time or more comprehensive quotes, check World Government Bonds or Investing.com CDS.
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2025 actuals, some 2026 estimates)
| Country | Current Account (% of GDP) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 16.7 | Dec/25 |
| Netherlands | 7.9 | Dec/25 |
| South Korea | 6.6 | Dec/25 |
| Switzerland | 5.1 | Dec/24 |
| Japan | 4.7 | Dec/25 |
| Germany | 4.5 | Dec/25 |
| China | 3.7 | Dec/25 |
| Spain | 2.9 | Dec/25 |
| Italy | ~2.5 | Recent |
| Norway | ~10–15 (oil-driven) | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | ~5–8 | 2025 est. |
| United States | -3.6 | Dec/25 |
| United Kingdom | -3.5 | Recent |
| France | -0.8 | Recent |
| Canada | -0.1 | Dec/25 |
| Australia | -2.9 | Dec/25 |
| Brazil | -2.3 | Dec/25 |
| India | -1.5 | Recent |
| Turkey | -1.6 | 2025 |
| Russia | ~1.5 | 2025 est. |
Note: Positive values indicate a current account surplus; negative values indicate a deficit. The current account includes trade balance, net income from abroad, and net transfers. For the most up-to-date figures, check Trading Economics or the IMF Data Mapper.
Short-Term Debt to Reserves (% of Total Reserves) by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2024, some 2025 estimates)
| Country | Short-Term Debt to Reserves (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 36,315 | 2024 |
| Netherlands | ~800–1,200+ | 2024 est. |
| Ireland | ~1,500+ | Recent |
| Singapore | ~400–600 | 2024 |
| Türkiye (Turkey) | 114 | 2024 |
| Argentina | 164 | 2024 |
| Tunisia | 171 | 2024 |
| Georgia | 109 | 2024 |
| Pakistan | 52 | 2024 |
| Egypt | 69 | 2024 |
| United States | ~15–25 | Recent |
| Germany | ~20–40 | Recent |
| Japan | ~10–20 | Recent |
| China | ~30–50 | 2024 |
| India | ~20 | Recent |
| Brazil | ~40–60 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~60–80 | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | ~15–30 | Recent |
| Russia | ~30–50 | Recent |
| Australia | ~25–40 | Recent |
Note: Short-term debt to reserves measures short-term external debt (maturing within one year) as a percentage of total international reserves. Values above 100% indicate potential liquidity pressure if short-term obligations cannot be rolled over. Financial centers (e.g., Luxembourg) often show extremely high ratios due to international banking activity. For the most up-to-date figures, check World Bank Data or TheGlobalEconomy.com.
Debt Service to Exports (% of Exports of Goods, Services & Primary Income) by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2023–2024, some 2025 estimates)
| Country | Debt Service / Exports (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 38.3 | 2024 |
| Angola | 28.9 | 2024 |
| Egypt | ~25–30 | 2024 est. |
| Türkiye (Turkey) | ~22–28 | Recent |
| Pakistan | ~20–25 | 2024 |
| Sri Lanka | ~18–22 (post-restructuring) | 2024 |
| Zambia | ~25+ | Recent |
| Brazil | ~15–20 | 2024 |
| South Africa | ~12–18 | 2024 |
| Nigeria | ~15–20 | Recent |
| Kenya | ~18 | 2024 |
| Ethiopia | ~20+ | Recent |
| India | ~8–12 | 2024 |
| Indonesia | ~10–14 | 2024 |
| Mexico | ~12 | 2024 |
| China | ~5–8 | Recent |
| United States | ~4–6 | Recent |
| Germany | ~3–5 | Recent |
| Japan | ~2–4 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~8–12 | Recent |
| South Korea | ~6–9 | Recent |
Note: Debt service to exports measures total external debt service (principal + interest) as a percentage of exports of goods, services, and primary income. Higher ratios signal greater pressure on foreign exchange earnings and potential debt sustainability risks, especially for commodity-dependent or low-income countries. For the most precise and up-to-date figures, check the World Bank Data or Trading Economics.
External Debt to GDP by Country
Latest available data (mostly 2024–2025, some 2026 estimates)
| Country | External Debt to GDP (%) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 3937 | Dec/25 |
| Malta | 787 | Dec/25 |
| Ireland | 507 | Dec/25 |
| Cyprus | 620 | Dec/25 |
| Netherlands | 345 | Dec/25 |
| Singapore | 402 | 2025 |
| Austria | 150 | Dec/25 |
| Belgium | 245 | Sep/25 |
| Canada | 148 | 2025 |
| France | 250 | 2024 |
| United Kingdom | 278 | Sep/25 |
| United States | 88 | Sep/25 |
| Germany | 145 | Sep/25 |
| Australia | 108 | 2025 |
| New Zealand | 89 | Recent |
| Japan | 106 | Dec/25 |
| China | 12 | 2025 |
| India | ~20 | Recent |
| Brazil | 29 | 2025 |
| Mexico | 7 | Dec/24 |
| Argentina | 26 | Dec/24 |
| Russia | ~15–20 | Recent |
| Saudi Arabia | ~20 | Recent |
Note: External debt includes both public and private sector debt owed to non-residents. Very high ratios in financial hubs (Luxembourg, Ireland, etc.) are common due to international banking and corporate structures. For the most up-to-date figures, check Trading Economics or the World Bank International Debt Statistics.
CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker
Sovereign Risk Index (0–10) — Likelihood of default within 5 years (10 = ≥50% probability)
| Country | CFR Sovereign Risk Index | Notes / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 10 | In default |
| Belarus | 10 | In default |
| Lebanon | 10 | In default |
| Argentina | 9.5 | High vulnerability |
| Egypt | 8.8 | Elevated risk |
| Pakistan | 8.5 | High vulnerability |
| Turkey | 8.2 | Elevated risk |
| Ukraine | 8.0 | Geopolitical stress |
| Tunisia | 7.9 | Elevated risk |
| Nigeria | 7.6 | High vulnerability |
| South Africa | 6.5 | Moderate-high risk |
| Brazil | 5.8 | Moderate risk |
| India | 4.2 | Moderate risk |
| Indonesia | 4.0 | Moderate risk |
| Mexico | 4.5 | Moderate risk |
| Philippines | 3.8 | Moderate risk |
| China | 3.5 | Lower relative risk |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.8 | Lower relative risk |
| Chile | 2.5 | Lower relative risk |
| Poland | 2.2 | Lower relative risk |
| Korea (South) | 1.8 | Low risk |
Note: The CFR Sovereign Risk Index gauges vulnerability of emerging and frontier markets to external debt default. It is primarily based on CDS spreads (where available), sovereign credit ratings, or modeled political-risk factors. Values of 10 indicate ≥50% estimated probability of default within 5 years. The tracker also includes supporting indicators such as current account balance (% GDP), external debt (% GDP), reserve-adequacy ratio, government debt (% GDP), fiscal balance, FX-denominated debt, political instability index, and CDS spreads. For the full interactive map and latest country-specific details, visit the official CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker (last major update: May 21, 2025).