Risk Rankings › Italy
Italy — Sovereign Credit Report
Italy's government debt is 148.7% of GDP, interest payments take 9.4% of government revenue, and consumer prices are up 1.2% year over year.
Higher = riskier. Based on 7 of 7 components (100% of the full weight); missing components are left out and the rest re-weighted. How the score works.
What drives the score
| Component | Reading | Risk points (0–100) | Weight | Adds to score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-GDP | 148.7% of GDP (2025) | 54 | 25% | 13.5 |
| Interest-to-revenue | 9.4% of revenue (2024) | 38 | 25% | 9.4 |
| Credit rating (S&P) | BBB | 57 | 15% | 8.6 |
| Inflation (CPI YoY, gap from 2%) | +1.16% YoY | 8 | 15% | 1.3 |
| Currency, 1-year vs USD | -4.5% vs USD | 41 | 10% | 4.1 |
| Debt trend (1-year change) | +0.9 pts of GDP | 39 | 5% | 2.0 |
| Foreign-held share of debt | 28.0% (Eurostat) | 40 | 5% | 2.0 |
The details
Debt
| Gross government debt | 148.7% of GDP |
| Data year | 2025 |
| Change vs. prior year | +0.9 pts |
| Interest / revenue | 9.4% (2024) |
| Foreign-held share | 28.0% |
Credit rating
| S&P long-term foreign-currency | BBB |
| Notches below AAA | 8 |
| Investment grade? | Yes |
Ratings current as of 2026-08-10.
Inflation & money
| CPI, year over year | +1.16% |
| CPI, month over month | +0.16% |
| Broad money growth (YoY) | +3.49% † |
| QTM implied inflation | +2.65%/yr |
† Euro-area-wide M3 — money supply is set by the ECB for the whole currency union.
QTM = money growth minus real GDP growth, the Hanke-Greenwood method, with a 12–24 month lag. Full table →
Currency
| EUR per US dollar | 0.8925 |
| Latest day vs USD | -0.19% |
| 1 year vs USD | -4.5% |
+ means the EUR gained against the dollar. Rates as of 2026-10-05. All currencies →
Monetary policy
| Policy rate (ECB, euro area) | 2.50% |
| Last move | ▲ 0.25 pts |
| Changed on | 2026-09-16 |
| Real policy rate (rate − CPI) | +1.34% |
Source: ECB (via FRED). Central banking →
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Sources: OECD (gross general government debt, CPI); World Bank (interest payments % of revenue, broad money); Eurostat and US Treasury TIC (foreign-held debt); IMF (real GDP growth); ECB via Frankfurter (exchange rates); BIS, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of England (policy rates); S&P (credit ratings, entered manually). Data refreshed Oct 5, 2026. The Bankrupt Baby Risk Score is our own composite indicator, not a credit rating. Educational content only — not financial advice.