Risk Rankings › Japan
Japan — Sovereign Credit Report
Japan's government debt is 218.5% of GDP, and consumer prices are down 0.4% year over year.
Higher = riskier. Based on 5 of 7 components (70% of the full weight); missing components are left out and the rest re-weighted. How the score works.
What drives the score
| Component | Reading | Risk points (0–100) | Weight | Adds to score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-GDP | 218.5% of GDP (2024) | 86 | 36% | 30.6 |
| Interest-to-revenue | Not available for Japan — excluded | |||
| Credit rating (S&P) | A+ | 29 | 21% | 6.1 |
| Inflation (CPI YoY, gap from 2%) | -0.40% YoY | 24 | 21% | 5.1 |
| Currency, 1-year vs USD | -6.9% vs USD | 48 | 14% | 6.9 |
| Debt trend (1-year change) | -12.6 pts of GDP | 0 | 7% | 0.0 |
| Foreign-held share of debt | Not available for Japan — excluded | |||
The details
Debt
| Gross government debt | 218.5% of GDP |
| Data year | 2024 |
| Change vs. prior year | -12.6 pts |
| Interest / revenue | — |
| Foreign-held share | — |
Credit rating
| S&P long-term foreign-currency | A+ |
| Notches below AAA | 4 |
| Investment grade? | Yes |
Ratings current as of 2026-08-10.
Inflation & money
| CPI, year over year | -0.40% |
| CPI, month over month | +0.10% |
| Broad money growth (YoY) | +0.60% |
| QTM implied inflation | +0.02%/yr |
QTM = money growth minus real GDP growth, the Hanke-Greenwood method, with a 12–24 month lag. Full table →
Currency
| JPY per US dollar | 158.23 |
| Latest day vs USD | -0.35% |
| 1 year vs USD | -6.9% |
+ means the JPY gained against the dollar. Rates as of 2026-10-05. All currencies →
Monetary policy
| Policy rate | 1.25% |
| Last move | ▲ 0.25 pts |
| Changed on | 2026-09-24 |
| Real policy rate (rate − CPI) | +1.65% |
Source: BIS. Central banking →
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Sources: OECD (gross general government debt, CPI); World Bank (interest payments % of revenue, broad money); Eurostat and US Treasury TIC (foreign-held debt); IMF (real GDP growth); ECB via Frankfurter (exchange rates); BIS, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of England (policy rates); S&P (credit ratings, entered manually). Data refreshed Oct 5, 2026. The Bankrupt Baby Risk Score is our own composite indicator, not a credit rating. Educational content only — not financial advice.