Inflation by Country
Current consumer price index levels, YoY and MoM inflation, and a forward-looking Quantity Theory of Money projection with inflation lag for each country's CPI. Last refresh: Oct 25, 2026 10:45 PM
How the QTM projection works
The Quantity Theory of Money starts from the equation of exchange, MV = Py (money supply × velocity = price level × real output), which in growth-rate form is %ΔM + %ΔV = %ΔP + %ΔY. Assuming stable velocity, this simplifies to:
Implied inflation ≈ Broad money growth (YoY) − Real GDP growth (YoY)
This is the method Steve Hanke and John Greenwood used in the Wall Street Journal ("Too Much Money Portends High Inflation," July 20, 2021) to correctly forecast the 2021–2022 inflation surge while most forecasters were caught off guard. Hanke and Greenwood found that money-supply changes typically take 12 to 24 months to fully show up in consumer prices — not a fixed date, a range — so the "Projected CPI" column below shows the implied CPI level at both ends of that window, compounding the current money-growth-minus-GDP-growth differential forward one year and two years. Where a country's money supply or GDP data isn't available for the trailing period, that column shows N/A rather than a guess.
The Anticipated CPI column shows that differential as a yearly inflation rate, with the math underneath (M2 growth − real GDP growth). The arrow compares it with today's YoY inflation: ▲ rising means money growth points to higher inflation than now, ▼ easing means lower, and ▬ means roughly the same (within 0.25 points).
| Country | CPI Index | YoY % | MoM % | Anticipated CPI (QTM, %/yr) | QTM Projected CPI (12–24mo) | M2 YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 11,607.39 | +33.20% | +2.15% | ▲ +40.33% 44.85% M2 − 4.52% GDP | 16,288.7 – 22,857.9 | +44.85% |
| Turkey | 3,513.87 | +30.89% | +0.89% | ▲ +34.71% 37.90% M2 − 3.19% GDP | 4,733.5 – 6,376.5 | +37.90% |
| Russia | 227.82 | +16.70% | +7.61% | ▼ +15.79% 16.66% M2 − 0.87% GDP | 263.8 – 305.5 | +16.66% |
| Colombia | 158.17 | +5.68% | +0.78% | ▲ +9.28% 11.91% M2 − 2.63% GDP | 172.9 – 188.9 | +11.91% |
| Mexico | 136.00 | +5.57% | +1.05% | ▲ +7.39% 8.76% M2 − 1.37% GDP | 146.1 – 156.9 | +8.76% |
| Iceland | 235.82 | +4.49% | +1.16% | ▲ +9.26% 11.66% M2 − 2.40% GDP | 257.7 – 281.5 | +11.66% |
| United States | 335.12 | +4.47% | +0.63% | ▬ +4.30% 6.04% M2 − 1.74% GDP | 349.5 – 364.6 | +6.04% |
| India | 149.90 | +4.46% | +0.54% | ▲ +5.03% 11.30% M2 − 6.27% GDP | 157.4 – 165.4 | +11.30% |
| Brazil | 7,596.09 | +4.39% | +0.67% | ▲ +8.20% 10.18% M2 − 1.98% GDP | 8,219.0 – 8,892.9 | +10.18% |
| Australia | 102.80 | +4.18% | +0.35% | ▲ +4.58% 6.66% M2 − 2.08% GDP | 107.5 – 112.4 | +6.66% |
| Estonia | 315.36 | +4.08% | -0.60% | ▼ +1.66% 3.49% M2 − 1.83% GDP | 320.6 – 325.9 | +3.49% † |
| Chile | 134.10 | +3.94% | -0.53% | ▼ -1.31% 0.87% M2 − 2.18% GDP | 132.3 – 130.6 | +0.87% |
| Slovakia | 244.50 | +3.87% | -0.33% | ▼ +1.78% 3.49% M2 − 1.71% GDP | 248.9 – 253.3 | +3.49% † |
| Austria | 129.80 | +3.76% | +0.31% | ▼ +2.71% 3.49% M2 − 0.78% GDP | 133.3 – 136.9 | +3.49% † |
| Costa Rica | 103.68 | +3.50% | +0.37% | ▼ +1.47% 4.90% M2 − 3.43% GDP | 105.2 – 106.8 | +4.90% |
| Latvia | 151.82 | +3.49% | -0.08% | ▼ +1.01% 3.49% M2 − 2.48% GDP | 153.4 – 154.9 | +3.49% † |
| Lithuania | 160.08 | +3.45% | -0.15% | ▼ +1.03% 3.49% M2 − 2.46% GDP | 161.7 – 163.4 | +3.49% † |
| Hungary | 234.10 | +3.26% | +0.04% | ▲ +6.95% 9.50% M2 − 2.55% GDP | 250.4 – 267.8 | +9.50% |
| Norway | 139.10 | +3.19% | +0.14% | ▼ +1.73% 3.45% M2 − 1.72% GDP | 141.5 – 144.0 | +3.45% |
| South Korea | 119.92 | +3.14% | +0.46% | ▲ +5.10% 6.55% M2 − 1.45% GDP | 126.0 – 132.5 | +6.55% |
| Indonesia | 111.40 | +3.08% | +0.28% | ▲ +4.93% 9.60% M2 − 4.67% GDP | 116.9 – 122.7 | +9.60% |
| South Africa | 100.30 | +3.08% | +0.30% | ▲ +6.88% 8.17% M2 − 1.29% GDP | 107.2 – 114.6 | +8.17% |
| Luxembourg | 126.18 | +3.06% | +0.11% | ▼ +1.27% 3.49% M2 − 2.22% GDP | 127.8 – 129.4 | +3.49% † |
| United Kingdom | 141.80 | +2.98% | +0.71% | ▼ +1.15% 2.56% M2 − 1.41% GDP | 143.4 – 145.1 | +2.56% |
| Spain | 119.94 | +2.92% | +0.34% | ▼ +1.67% 3.49% M2 − 1.82% GDP | 122.0 – 124.0 | +3.49% † |
| Germany | 125.20 | +2.88% | +0.56% | ▼ +2.57% 3.49% M2 − 0.92% GDP | 128.4 – 131.7 | +3.49% † |
| Netherlands | 135.27 | +2.77% | +0.01% | ▼ +2.07% 3.49% M2 − 1.42% GDP | 138.1 – 140.9 | +3.49% † |
| Ireland | 104.20 | +2.76% | +0.48% | ▼ +1.38% 3.49% M2 − 2.11% GDP | 105.6 – 107.1 | +3.49% † |
| Slovenia | 131.33 | +2.71% | +0.05% | ▼ +1.09% 3.49% M2 − 2.40% GDP | 132.8 – 134.2 | +3.49% † |
| Greece | 122.56 | +2.59% | +0.28% | ▼ +1.73% 3.49% M2 − 1.76% GDP | 124.7 – 126.8 | +3.49% † |
| Poland | 194.50 | +2.37% | 0.00% | ▲ +6.14% 9.24% M2 − 3.10% GDP | 206.4 – 219.1 | +9.24% |
| Portugal | 124.84 | +2.19% | +0.09% | ▼ +1.82% 3.49% M2 − 1.67% GDP | 127.1 – 129.4 | +3.49% † |
| Saudi Arabia | 113.74 | +2.14% | 0.00% | N/A | N/A | — |
| Czechia | 155.20 | +2.11% | -0.26% | ▲ +5.56% 7.35% M2 − 1.79% GDP | 163.8 – 172.9 | +7.35% |
| Belgium | 136.29 | +2.06% | +0.07% | ▲ +2.52% 3.49% M2 − 0.97% GDP | 139.7 – 143.3 | +3.49% † |
| Israel | 105.10 | +1.94% | +1.15% | ▲ +2.76% 6.36% M2 − 3.60% GDP | 108.0 – 111.0 | +6.36% |
| Denmark | 121.20 | +1.93% | -0.41% | ▼ -0.40% 1.45% M2 − 1.85% GDP | 120.7 – 120.2 | +1.45% |
| Canada | 164.30 | +1.73% | +0.55% | N/A | N/A | — |
| China | 104.36 | +1.20% | 0.00% | ▲ +2.85% 6.81% M2 − 3.96% GDP | 107.3 – 110.4 | +6.81% |
| Italy | 122.60 | +1.16% | +0.16% | ▲ +2.65% 3.49% M2 − 0.84% GDP | 125.9 – 129.2 | +3.49% † |
| France | 120.90 | +0.79% | +0.08% | ▲ +2.47% 3.49% M2 − 1.02% GDP | 123.9 – 127.0 | +3.49% † |
| Sweden | 417.96 | +0.30% | +0.03% | ▼ -1.86% 0.31% M2 − 2.17% GDP | 410.2 – 402.6 | +0.31% |
| Finland | 122.67 | +0.23% | +0.22% | ▲ +2.08% 3.49% M2 − 1.41% GDP | 125.2 – 127.8 | +3.49% † |
| Switzerland | 106.94 | +0.06% | -0.01% | N/A | N/A | — |
| Japan | 99.50 | -0.40% | +0.10% | ▲ +0.02% 0.60% M2 − 0.58% GDP | 99.5 – 99.5 | +0.60% |
† Eurozone members show the shared euro-area M3 growth rate rather than a national figure — money supply is set for the currency union as a whole by the ECB, not per member state.
CPI: OECD. Broad money growth: World Bank, with ECB euro-area M3 as a Eurozone fallback. Real GDP growth: IMF. QTM methodology: Hanke & Greenwood, Wall Street Journal, July 20, 2021, and Greenwood & Hanke, "On Monetary Growth and Inflation in Leading Economies, 2021–2022," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (2021). This is an illustrative model, not a guaranteed forecast — educational content only, not financial advice.